Why A Pact Between Mashatile And Mbalula Could Destroy The ANC’s Future

Reports suggest that ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula and Deputy President Paul Mashatile are in talks to broker a deal that would avoid a contested elective conference in 2027. Both men are reportedly eyeing the ANC presidency after Cyril Ramaphosa’s exit.

While some within the party argue that such a pact could reduce factional battles, analysts warn that it may deepen public mistrust in the ANC and accelerate its decline.

A Fragile Alliance Built on Self-Interest

According to political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast, the idea of a consensus deal will not address the ANC’s fundamental problems.

“The ANC has been affected by a whole range of things, the institutionalisation of corruption, a slow pace of service delivery and cadre deployment,” he explained.

“The point I am making is this: all those factors have created a negative impression about the ANC to the electorate, so the brand ANC has been dragged through the mud. To bring back the glory of the ANC I think it is a mission impossible.”

Breakfast argues that the Mashatile–Mbalula pact is less about saving the ANC and more about securing personal power. “If they are saying that they are doing this for the ANC, I do not think that they are being honest. This is about themselves securing two powerful positions, not about the ANC.”

The Risk of Radical Politics and Zuma’s Shadow

Another political analyst, Andre Duvenhage from North West University, describes the proposed alliance as a “recipe for disaster.” He warns that it could drag the ANC further into instability and open the door for renewed ties with Jacob Zuma’s political camp.

“The Mashatile line is going as far as KZN and probably towards the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. If there is co-operation between Jacob Zuma and Paul Mashatile, that will take the ANC into a new dimension of radical politics and most probably the continuation of corrupt politics, because both of them are associated with corruption and what we call the mafia state.”

Duvenhage adds that this pact could shift the ANC leftward, undermining governance and worsening South Africa’s political uncertainty.

Succession Battles and Ramaphosa’s Weak Leadership

Both analysts agree that the debate over Ramaphosa’s successor has already begun. Mashatile’s credibility is in question after controversies over property ownership and other allegations, while Mbalula faces criticism for pursuing deals while insisting others stay silent on succession.

Breakfast also points out that Ramaphosa’s lingering Phala Phala scandal continues to weaken him: “One of his problems is the Phala Phala issue; he is not out of the woods yet. At some point, he will face the music.”

Duvenhage notes that Ramaphosa’s leadership vacuum is compounding the ANC’s internal crisis. “He is taking no decisions… For now, his main aim is not to divide the ANC, but he is not governing South Africa. He is what they call a lame duck president in the extreme.”

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The idea of a Mashatile–Mbalula pact may look like a solution to avoid factional battles, but it risks pushing the ANC deeper into instability and discredit. For many South Africans, it represents yet another chapter in the party’s decline—driven by self-interest, factionalism, and weak leadership rather than renewal.

This opinion piece was contributed by Tshepo Ndlovu for publication by the SurgeZirc SA Opinion Desk.

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