Gwede Mantashe Warns ANC Could Become History As Black Vote Fragmentation Weakens Party

ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe has warned that the growing fragmentation of the black electorate could accelerate the party's decline, cautioning that the ANC risks disappearing if it fails to address the trend.

Mantashe made the remarks during an ANC podcast discussion about the party's disappointing performance in the 2026 local government

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elections. The ANC secured approximately 30% of the overall vote, following its decline to 45% in the 2024 national elections.

He described the latest results as “catastrophic” and argued that the emergence of numerous political parties competing for support had weakened the traditional ANC voter base. According to Mantashe, the fragmentation could have consequences beyond the party's own electoral performance.

Mantashe Blames Fragmented Black Vote For ANC's Decline

Mantashe pointed to the 520 political parties that contested the 2026 local government elections, arguing that most were black-led or represented black political interests.

“What I want people to analyse is the fragmentation of the black voter base. We have 520 political parties that contested the local government elections in 2026, all of them, except three or four, are black parties,” he said.

He argued that while some smaller parties secured seats and others failed to make an electoral impact, their combined presence had diluted the influence of black voters.

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“The white vote consolidates while the black vote fragments. The white vote can use that advantage to drive wedges among ourselves, and you get divided further.

“If we don’t understand the threat of fragmentation… in future we’ll be history,” Mantashe warned.

He also compared the ANC's declining electoral performance with the struggles experienced by other liberation movements, saying some had managed to recover while others had continued to lose support.

ANC Must Accept Opposition Role In Coalition Councils

Addressing coalition negotiations following the elections, Mantashe said the ANC should not pursue power at any cost. He argued that the party must be prepared to serve as an opposition party in municipalities where it lacks sufficient support to govern.

“The ANC must never seek to govern at all costs. Where we are a small party, we must be content to be an opposition, and an effective opposition,” he said.

Mantashe also rejected the idea that coalition partners should be selected solely according to racial identity or assumptions about political stability. He said the ANC should assess each municipality individually before deciding which parties to work with.

“Look at every municipality, one by one, and develop a strategy on the basis of the status of the situation in a particular area,” he said.

Mantashe Responds To Calls For ANC Leaders To Step Down

The ANC chairperson also addressed criticism from former party leaders and calls for members of the current leadership to resign. He maintained that leadership changes should be determined through the party's established structures rather than public pressure from individual members.

“If the national executive committee (NEC) says to us, ‘the leadership must go’, we will go. That structure has recalled two presidents. Even if you disagree with it, you comply because it’s a majority decision in a structure of the movement,” Mantashe said.

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He expressed concern that criticism from former leaders outside ANC structures could undermine the organisation, arguing that those who had previously held senior positions should help rebuild the party rather than contribute to its decline.

Mantashe also acknowledged that he was approaching retirement and would likely become more vocal publicly once he left office. However, he said former leaders still had a responsibility to respect the ANC's constitution and internal processes.

Despite the party's declining electoral support, Mantashe insisted that the ANC was not close to disappearing. He said it remained the country's largest governing party and continued to control several municipalities outright, while governing others through coalitions.

“We have declined; it is a painful process, [but] we must humble ourselves to our people and see if they’ll come back to the ANC, but we are far from being on our deathbed,” he said.