Experts Weigh In Vaal Dam Levels As It Surges, Concerns About Overflow

Experts weigh in on Vaal Dam levels as surges and prompting concerns about potential overflow and downstream flooding in Vaal Dam’s water as the level has surged to 89.2%. However, the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) has reassured the public that the dam is designed to handle rising levels safely.

Its capacity has increased by more than two percentage points daily over the past week, with the latest rise recorded at one percentage point between Wednesday and Thursday. If this trend continues, the dam could reach full capacity by early to mid-March.

Despite the sharp increase, Midvaal councillor Pieter Swart noted that reduced rainfall and lower upstream contributions, including from the Grootdraai Dam, may slow the dam’s filling rate.

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Meanwhile, the DWS has clarified that the Vaal Dam does not pose an immediate risk of overflow or structural failure.

“The Vaal Dam operates with a full supply level of 100% but has a flood absorption capacity of up to 126% before posing a significant risk,” the department told The Citizen.

“As a precautionary measure, flood management protocols aim to keep the dam below 103% to manage peak inflows safely.”

Moreso, If the dam approaches critical levels, authorities will make controlled water releases and notify downstream communities in advance.

Unlike some dams that spill over naturally, the Vaal Dam uses sluice gates to regulate water flow.

“Once the dam reaches 100%, water is released in a controlled manner through sluice gates. If heavy rains are expected, authorities will strategically open these gates,” Swart explained.

Water expert Carin Bosman also dismissed the notion of “overflow risk,” stating:

“The dam is designed to overflow in a controlled manner, typically in March or early April, as part of its normal operation.”

While the dam itself is not at risk, low-lying areas downstream, such as Three Rivers, could experience localised flooding if multiple sluice gates are opened.

The DWS and disaster management authorities have established protocols to mitigate risks, including;
Issuing early warnings to downstream communities.
Activating evacuation plans if conditions worsen.
Strategically adjusting releases to minimise flood impact.

“In the event of an emergency, DWS will send official alerts via media, social media, local authorities, and SMS notifications,” the department stated.

Swart also provides daily updates on social media, with additional notifications from Rand Water and disaster management teams.

Experts warn that the biggest flood risk comes from development within flood zones, not the dam itself.

“If infrastructure is built within the 1-in-100-year flood line, that is the real risk—not the Vaal Dam overflowing,” Bosman explained.

South Africa’s national and local flood regulations dictate where construction can take place, but some developments have been built in high-risk zones.

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Despite rising water levels, Swart emphasised the need for continued water conservation to safeguard against future droughts.

“No one wants to see the Vaal Dam drop to critical levels again, as this would threaten water security for communities and agriculture,” he warned.

By using water responsibly, residents can help sustain regional water supplies and ensure long-term resilience.

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